Analyst Brad Powers has released his preseason outlook for the Big 12, positioning the Texas Tech Red Raiders as the primary contenders for the conference title. the projections highlight a league in flux, defined by aggressive transfer portal activity and significant coaching turnovers.
Texas Tech's 7.7-win projection and the 70% championship path
The Texas Tech Red Raiders enter the season as the team to beat, with Brad Powers projecting them to win 7.7 games in Big 12 play. According to the report, Powers believes there is at least a 70% probability that Texas Tech will reach the Big 12 Championship game, where they would be 5.5-point favorites. This optimism comes despite Powers' assessment that the current roster is actually worse than the previous year's squad.
To maintain this edge, the Texas Tech Red Raiders are leveraging a blend of continuity and new blood, returning 12 starters while integrating 10 transfers who served as full-time FBS starters in 2025. This aggressive roster building places them ahead of BYU, which Powers projects to win 6.6 games, the next closest figure in the conference.
The contrast between DJ Lagway's 28:23 ratio and TCU's Top-2 recruiting
While some teams rely on transfers, others are betting on elite youth and returning talent. The Baylor Bears return a significant 18 starters, but the focus remains on quarterback DJ Lagway . As Brad Powers reported, Lagway arrives with a mediocre 28:23 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a history of injuries, leading Powers to project Baylor as underdogs in as many as eight games.
In contrast, the TCU Horned Frogs are leaning on a foundation of elite recruiting, having secured a Top-2 recruiting class in the Big 12 for three consecutive years (2023, 2024, and 2025). With leading rusher Jeremy Payne returning to the lineup, Powers has the TCU Horned Frogs favored in eight games, noting that they are projected to be more than a field goal underdog in only one contest.
Why Arizona's NFL losses and Iowa State's zero returning starters signal a slump
The volatility of the Big 12 is most evident in the projected declines of Arizona and Iowa State. The Arizona Wildcats are reeling from the loss of four secondary starters to the NFL Draft, prompting Powers to bet Under 7.5 wins for the team. This suggests a significant regression from the nine wins the Arizona Wildcats achieved last season .
The situation at Iowa State is even more stark. following the appointment of a new head coach, the Iowa State Cyclones return zero starters from the previous year. Consequently, Powers projects the Iowa State Cyclones to be underdogs in 10 different games, marking them as one of the most vulnerable teams in the conference.
Willie Fritz's underrated Cougars and the Collin Klein era at K-State
Not every projection points downward; some teams are viewed as sleeper hits. Powers identifies Houston head coach Willie Fritz as the most underrated coach in the country.. Although the Houston Cougars face a brutal stretch from Week 4 to Week 10 where they are underdogs in six straight games, Powers still has the Houston Cougars favored in nine games overall.
Similarly, the K-State Wildcats are expected to bounce back under new leadership. While the program underachieved during the tenure of former coach Chris Klieman, Powers believes the hire of Collin Klein will lead to a successful season. This trend of upward mobility is also seen with the Colorado Buffaloes, who return only three starters but have seen their power rating upgraded this offseason.
The London trip for Kansas and Oklahoma State's climb to 6.5 wins
Scheduling anomalies and coaching changes are creating unique hurdles for the remaining contenders. The Kansas Jayhawks face a daunting path after losing long-time quarterback Jalon Daniels, including a neutral-site game in London against Arizona State. Because of these factors, Powers has bet Under 6.5 wins for the Kansas Jayhawks.
Meanwhile, the Oklahoma State Cowboys are seeing a dramatic shift in expectations. Under new head coach Eric Morris and quarterback Drew Mestemaker, Powers' preseason ratings have moved the Oklahoma State Cowboys from a 1-11 projection to 6-6.. This positive momentum is reflected in the betting markets, where the win total for Oklahoma State has already been pushed up from 5 to 6.5.
Despite the detailed numbers, some specifics remain vague. The report mentions a "coach on the hot seat" who could face a "snowball effect" after an early loss,but it does not explicitly name the coach, leaving the exact stability of the Baylor leadership in question. Furthermore, it remains unclear how the Texas Tech Red Raiders can be both "worse than last year" and yet the heavy favorites for a championship.
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