Analyst Brad Powers is predicting that the Ohio State Buckeyes will exceed their projected win total despite facing a challenging slate of opponents. His latest power ratings also suggest a regression for several other major programs, including USC and Iowa, as the season approaches.
The Ohio State Buckeyes' 20-year streak of consistency
The Ohio State Buckeyes enter the season with a formidable rotser, featuring what Powers describes as the best player in the country, WR Jeremiah Smith. According to the report, the Buckeyes also benefit from the return of starting QB Julian Sayin and the addition of four transfers who held starting roles at other FBS programs last year.
This confidence in Ohio State is rooted in a long-term pattern of stability. The report notes that the Ohio State Buckeyes have not lost three games in a single regular season since 2004, with 2011 serving as the only exception to this trend. Even with five opponents ranked in Powers' Top 15, the program's historical consistency makes them a strong bet to eclipse their win total.
USC's 2-16 struggle in the Central and Eastern time zones
While the USC Trojans possess strong individual components—including a three-year starting quarterback in Jayden Maiava and the best defensive line of Coach Lincoln Riley's tenure—their geography remains a liability. As reported, the Trojans have been historically poor when traveling east, posting a dismal 2-16 record in the central and eastern time zones.
The upcoming schedule exacerbates this weakness, as USC must travel to face Indiana, Rutgers, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Combined with matchups against a Top 20 Washington team and an improved UCLA squad, Brad Powers has downgraded the USC power rating, though he still expects the Trojans to finish with an 8-4 record.
Iowa's 16 transfers and Maryland's 14 returning starters
The modern era of the transfer portal is on full display at the University of Iowa, where the Hawkeyes have brought in a program-record 16 transfers, many of whom arrive from the FCS level. Despite the consistency of Head Coach Kirk Ferentz, Brad Powers has downgraded Iowa's power rating and leans toward the "Under" on 10.5 wins.
Conversely, Maryland presents a paradox of experience. The Maryland program returns a nation-high 14 starters and ranks No. 2 in experience metrics provided by Phil Steele and Bill Connelly. However, the report says that Powers leans Under 5.5 wins for Maryland, suggesting that veteran presence may not translate to a higher win ceiling this year.
The Bryce Underwood doubt and Pat Fitzgerald's Northwestern challenge
Michigan faces one of the most grueling schedules in the nation, including four matchups against Top 10 teams. The primary concern for the Wolverines, according to the report, is whether QB Bryce Underwood can improve sufficiently to navigate such a difficult path.
At Northwestern , the leadership shift is viewed as a positive, with Pat Fitzgerald described as a significant upgrade over Sherrone Moore. However, this coaching change has not convinced Brad Powers of the team's immediate prospects; he has downgraded Northwestern's power rating and expects the program to struggle throughout the season.
Unresolved Variables in the Ratings
Several points in the analysis remain open to interpretation. Specifically, it is uncleaar why Brad Powers leans Under 5.5 wins for Maryland despite their league-leading 14 returning starters. Additionally, while the report mentions that Coach Bret Bielema is doing a "great job" at Illinois, it does not specify the exact tactical or personnel failures that led Powers to downgrade the Illinois power rating.
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