Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signaled a major shift in foreign policy by declaring his government will not renew its commitments to the CSTO. This move follows years of tension regarding the alliance's failure to defend Armenia against Azerbaijani incursions.
Pashinyan’s demand for expulsion from the alliance
On Monday, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan informed the National Assembly that his administration intends to stop activating or renewing any commitments under the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).. According to the report, Pashinyan even urged the group to expel Armenia to resolve a strategic dilemma that has compromised national interests. This follows a directive from February 2024 that froze cooperation with the organization.
The decision to distance itself from the alliance is not a sudden impulse but the culmination of a process that began earlier this year. In February 2024, the Armenian government issued a directive to freeze all cooperation with the CSTO, citing the organization's lack of support during recent border skirmishes. This freeze served as a precursor to Monday's more definitive announcement before the National Assembly.
The Kremlin has offered a relatively restrained response to this potential departure. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that Armenia is free to leave if it no longer views the orgaanization as essential to its security.
A legacy of Russian security eroded by Nagorno-Karabakh
Armenia's relationship with Russia is deeply historical, rooted in the territory's incorporation into the Russian Empire following the Russo-Persian War in the 19th century.. While Armenia joined the CSTC in 1992 and the expanded CSTO in 2002, the reliability of this security umbrella has collapsed during recent regional conflicts.
The alliance's failure to intervene during the 2020,2022, and 2023 clashes over Nagorno-Karabakh has fundamentally changed Yerevan's perspective. Analyst Richard Giragosian noted that the CSTO has failed to act as a dependable security provider when faced with Azerbaijani attacks, leading to a profound loss of confidence in Moscow's guarantees.
The shifting dynamics of the six-member CSTO bloc
The CSTO currently consists of six members: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Armenia. the group has shown inconsistent levels of cohesion, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine; while Belarus has provided combat troops to support Russia, other members have remained more distant. The report states that only Belarus has supplied combat troops in support of Russia's war effort.
Internal stability withn the bloc has also been tested, such as when the CSTO dispatched troops to Kazakhstan to manage internal unrest. As Armenia moves toward the exit, the alliance faces a significant reduction in its influence within the South Caucasus and a potential reconfiguration of regional power.
The search for new security partners in the South Caucasus
While the report outlines Armenia's intent to pivot, several critical questions remain regarding the nation's future stability. It is currently unclear which specific international partners or new alliances Armenia will pursue to replace the Russian security umbrella. The source does not clarify how Azerbaijan might react to Armenia's formal departure from the CSTO, nor does it detail if other CSTO members like Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan might follow Yerevan's lead.
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