Texas Governor's Race: Abbott Leads Hinojosa by 6 Points, Tightening Polls Ahead of Election A new poll shows Texas Governor Greg Abbott leading Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa by 6 percentage points in the Texas gubernatorial race, with the race tightening ahead of the election. The poll highlights demographic and generational divides shaping the race, with Abbott leading among white voters and Hinojosa holding an advantage among Latino voters. The race is one of 36 gubernatorial contests taking place nationwide in 2026, including several high-profile open-seat races in other states. Texas Governor Greg Abbott is leading Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa by 6 percentage points in the Texas gubernatorial race, according to a new poll released roughly three months before voters decide whether to grant the Republican a fourth term or elect the state's first Democratic governor in more than 30 years. Democrats have long sought to make inroads in Texas, which has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards won in 1990 and has backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1980. Democrats have been eyeing Texas as a potential swing state for years without much success, but the party believes President Donald Trump’s declining national approval rating could fuel momentum, allowing them to be more competitive in several conservative-leaning states, such as Texas, where there is also a high-profile Senate race.The polling is tighter overall and better demographically for Democrats than in 2022 or 2024, according to Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston. While Republicans point to their decades-long hold on statewide office as evidence of Texas’ conservative lean, some political analysts say the state’s political landscape is a bit different today than in past gubernatorial races.Mark Jones, a politics professor at Rice University, noted that one major difference between 2022 and 2026 is that in 2022 Abbott was boosted by strong anti-Biden tailwinds while in 2026 he is being buffeted by anti-Trump headwinds. However, he called 2022 Democratic candidate Beto O’Rourke ‘the Texas Democratic Party’s highest quality candidate’ and said that Hinojosa is ‘less well known, funded and charismatic’ and is politically ‘even further to the left of the median Texas voter than Beto on the ideological spectrum.’ Texas is a light red state where candidates who are able to retain the overwhelming support of GOP voters, such as Abbott, are well-positioned for victory in November. The new poll shows Abbott leading with 49 percent to Hinojosa’s 43 percent, with 5 percent of voters undecided and 3 percent backing Libertarian Pat Dixon.The governor received a 48 percent favorable rating and a 51 percent unfavorable rating among likely voters, while Hinojosa posted a 37 percent favorable rating and a 28 percent unfavorable rating. Nearly all likely voters, 99 percent, said they know enough about Abbott to form an opinion, compared with 65 percent who said the same of Hinojosa. The poll highlights the demographic and generational divides shaping the Texas governor’s race.Abbott leads Hinojosa among white likely voters by 24 points, 58 percent to 34 percent, while Hinojosa holds a 14-point advantage among Latino voters, 55 percent to 41 percent, and a 59-point lead among Black voters, 74 percent to 15 percent. The Democrat also leads among women by 11 points, 52 percent to 41 percent, while Abbott holds a 24-point advantage among men, 58 percent to 34 percent.The poll was conducted between July 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points