Prediction markets for 2026 midterms pass US$1.4 billion in trading volume Trading volume on prediction markets for the 2026 midterm elections has surpassed US$1.4 billion, with Kalshi and Polymarket leading the activity as Election Day approaches. Trading volume on prediction markets for the 2026 midterm elections has surpassed US$1.4 billion, according to a CNN analysis. The figure was reached at 6:01 p.m. EDT on October 23, 2026, as Election Day fast approaches. Kalshi, the biggest U.S. prediction company, has seen nearly $1.1 billion in trading volume on midterm-related markets, a spokesperson said. Those markets cover individual race outcomes, turnout numbers, prominent endorsements, whether candidates will debate, and what will be said at campaign rallies. Its rival Polymarket has seen more than $340 million in trading volume on midterm-related markets, a spokesperson told CNN. That total includes trading on Polymarket's U.S.-facing platform and its offshore site popular with international users.Prediction Market Value ExplainedIt is sizable, said Dustin Gouker, an industry expert who writes a newsletter about prediction markets. It is still much less than sports and crypto markets, but it is a lot of trading. And it is valuable. It is a meaningful signal that provides probabilities that aggregate polls and public sentiment, he said.Gouker said trading is expected to significantly ramp up on Election Day. Professional bettors try to cash in on volatile changes in the markets while polls close across the country. Still, as with gambling, most people who trade on prediction markets lose money. The prediction frenzy has scrambled U.S. political culture, with campaign staffers and donors obsessing over the odds.Federal regulators have pledged to crack down on insider trading related to the midterms, and Kalshi has already suspended six 2026 candidates for improperly betting on their own races. Trading volume does not measure how much money has been wagered on a specific market. These figures capture the overall economic activity, in terms of how much money has changed hands before the markets have been closed. CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events.But CNN editorial employees are not allowed to trade on prediction markets. A Kalshi billboard displaying US Senate midterm election odds was seen in New York on October 16, with a photo by Michael Nagle of Bloomberg via Getty Images through CNN Newsource. PredictIt, which bills itself as the original political prediction market, has been around since 2014. The company declined to provide dollar figures for its 2026 midterms trading volume.Regulatory Shift Boosts MarketsBut co-founder John Aristotle Phillips said business has been growing because of the favorable regulatory climate. The Biden administration took action against PredictIt and separately tried to shut down election markets in 2024. But PredictIt prevailed in court, and other federal courts ruled that election markets are permissible under federal law. The Trump administration has since embraced the industry and is finalizing new rules that protect election markets.There is a hunger for information, Phillips said. Once the legal pathway is clear, as to how Americans can be allowed to spend a little bit of their own money to make forecasts, I think that is going to be a good thing for everybody. Smaller companies are similarly seeing a boost, and some are trying to enter the U.S. market before the 2028 presidential election, which has already drawn major betting.ForecastEx, owned by Interactive Brokers, has seen more than $6.4 million in trading volume in markets about the midterms, a spokesman told CNN. A UK-based prediction market, Smarkets, has seen about $200,000 in trading about the midterms among its British customers. It is currently in the process of securing regulatory approval from the Trump administration to operate in the United States. It is a completely new ball game, Smarkets founder Jason Trost said.Legal Status Changes Market LandscapeIt is different this year because it is legal and it is widely available. Most of the money in prediction markets is sports. A small sliver is elections. But there is a lot of interesting data you can get out of it.The midterm markets have drawn attention far beyond the United States. The story appeared alongside other major headlines on October 23, 2026, including Ontario's plan to launch digital IDs and Trump's move to remove 50 percent tariffs on some Canadian goods. Other news that day included coverage of British Columbia's snap election and a warning about what voters need to know before casting a ballot. CTV News offered special coverage of that election.A son said a Canadian died in the U.S. after declining hospital care due to deportation fear. In sports, the Regina Thunder stood one win away from a national championship berth. The Milwaukee Brewers' Jacob Misiorowski set a World Series velocity record on his first pitch. The Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders unionized after years of fighting for higher pay.In business and culture, Ontario introduced a bill to speed Highway 69 widening by five years. Essex County municipalities were set to receive up to $105.8 million for housing infrastructure. The German Canadian Club rolled out the barrel for Oktoberfest in London. Police asked for video to help identify a suspect after an alleged sex assault of a child.Ottawa said it was disappointed after a union announced strike votes for 120,000 workers. A national security strategy to address an array of threats is coming soon, a Carney adviser said. Industry Minister Melanie Joly wants to build an aluminum rolling mill in Canada. Kenya announced a second Ebola death, a close relative of the first patient.A former Eminem employee admitted to selling the rapper's unreleased music. Chicago is getting a life-size Siskel and Ebert sculpture giving Two Thumbs Up. Canadian publishers are pushing back against AI. The prediction market story remains a central focus as the 2026 midterms near, with billions in trading already recorded.