On August 18, sports betting analyst Josh Inglis highlighted three MLB player prop bets centered on pitcher workloads. The analysis focuses on the returning Carlos Rodon, Cal Quantrill, and the fatigued Nick Martinez.
The 70-Pitch Ceiling for Carlos Rodon's Return
The New York Yankees' Carlos Rodon is returning to the mound under a strict pitch count, which creates a significant hurdle for those betting on his strikeout totlas. According to the analysis by Josh Inglis, Rodon threw only 58 pitches in his final rehab start, suggesting a projected limit of roughly 70 pitches or fewer for his first official game back.
This restricted leash is critical because Rodon's projected strikeout count is 4.47 on 69 pitches. As reported by Covers, Rodon typically sees a 95-pitch limit when healthy, which usually supports a prop of 5.5 strikeouts. The 30-pitch difference between a full workload and a restricted return makes the "Under" on his strikeout prop a high-value play.
Cal Quantrill and the 7th Worst Mark in Baseball
The Texas Rangers' Cal Quantrill presents a contrasting opportunity as he rejoins the starting rotation. While Quantrill recently spent time in the bullpen, he was stretched out to 91 pitches in his first start back, indicating that the coaching staff is comfortable with a deeper outing.
The value in Quantrill's prop stems from the quality of the opposition, which holds the seventh-worst mark in baseball for August. While the projection tool THE BAT estimates Quantrill will throw only 82 pitches, the reporting suggests a 90+ pitch leash is more likely, making the "Over" on his performance a strong positive-expected-value (+EV) bet.
Nick Martinez's 101-Pitch Complete Game Hangover
The Tampa Bay Rays' Nick Martinez enters his next start following a season-high workload of 101 pitches in a complete game. This spike is an anomaly compared to his recent trend,as Martinez had averaged just 81.5 pitches per start over his previous 10 outings.
The Toronto Blue Jays are expected to capitalize on this fatigue, as they are currently a low-strikeout team with a familiarity edge, having faced Martinez twice already this season. Because the Blue Jays can force a pitcher to work deeper into counts, the projection suggests Martinez will struggle to reach 17 outs, despite an expected 85-pitch count.
Josh Inglis's Strategy for Beating the Closing Line
This focus on pitch counts reflects a broader shift in sports betting toward derivative markets. Josh Inglis,who has tracked over 2,500 bets annually, argues that player props are often easier to beat than traditional game sides or totals because the market reacts more slowly to specific workload data.
The core of this strategy involves betting early to secure better numbers before the general public moves the line. By identifying discrepancies between a pitcher's historical average and their immediate projected leash—such as the gap in Nick Martinez's recent 101-pitch outing—bettors can find edges that are not yet priced into the sportsbook odds.
The Missing Opponent Data for Rodon and Quantrill
While the analysis provides deep workload metrics, several key details remain unverified. The source does not explicitly name the specific opposing teams for Carlos Rodon or Cal Quantrill, which is a vital piece of context for assessing the true difficulty of their matchups. Additionally, while the strikeout projection for Rodon is listed as 4.47, the exact sportsbook line for the "Over/Under" prop is not provided, leaving the precise risk-to-reward ratio unknown.
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