On August 18, sports betting expert Josh Inglis identified Pete Alonso , Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Wilyer Abreu as the top candidates to hit home runs. these selections are based on a combination of recent player momentum and specific vulnerabilities in the opposing pitching rotations.
Pete Alonso's 30/30 Momentum Against Carlos Rodon
Pete Alonso enters the August 18 matchup against the New York Yankees with significant momentum after recently achieving the 30/30 mark via a walk-off extra-inning home run.. According to the report from Covers, Alonso is currently one of the hottest hitters in the league, making his current betting price a high-value opportunity for those looking to capitalize on his power surge.
The matchup for Pete Alonso is particularly enticing because he faces Carlos Rodon, who is returning from the injured list. As Josh Inglis reported, pitchers returning from injury often struggle with command, and Rodon's recent rehab appearances suggest he may be susceptible to the long ball.
Erick Fedde's 62.5% HardHit Rate and the Pete Crow-Armstrong Opportunity
Pete Crow-Armstrong faces a Chicago White Sox pitching strategy that appears highly vulnerable. The Chicago White Sox intend to utilize lefty opener Bryan Hutson before transitioning to right-hander Erick Fedde,a pitcher who has recently lost his rotation spot due to poor performance.
The statistical case for Pete Crow-Armstrong is anchored by Erick Fedde's dismal August metrics. As reported by Covers, Fedde ranks 37th-worst in slugging and xwOBA for the month and has surrrendered a HardHit% of 62.5%, which is among the worst in Major League Baseball. With the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field, the environment further favors a power performance from Crow-Armstrong.
Wilyer Abreu's Five Homers in Eight Games
Wilyer Abreu has emerged as a primary target for bettors due to a sudden spike in productivity, hitting five home runs over his last eight games. This hot streak makes Abreu a strong value play, particularly at odds of +390 or better, as he looks to exploit a returning New York Yankees starter.
The vulnerability of Carlos Rodon is a key factor in the Wilyer Abreu prediction. josh Inglis notes that Rodon allowed four home runs across five rehab appearances, indicating that the pitcher may not yet have regained the form necessary to suppress elite power hitters.
The Shift Toward Player Props and Derivative Markets
The strategy employed by Josh Inglis reflects a broader trend in sports gambling where professional bettors are moving away from traditional game sides and totals. By focusing on derivative markets—such as specific player home run props—experts aim to beat the closing line by identifying mismatches that the general public often overlooks.
This approach requires a deep dive into advanced metrics like ISO and BlastCont%. By isolating these variables, bettors can find "+EV" (positive expected value) opportunities, such as the specific pricing identified for Wilyer Abreu and Pete Alonso on this Tuesday slate.
Will Carlos Rodon's 70-Pitch Leash Limit the Damage?
A critical unknown in this scenario is how the New York Yankees will manage Carlos Rodon's workload.. while the report suggests Rodon may be on a 70-pitch leash, it remains unclear if this restriction will protect him from the power of Pete Alonso and Wilyer Abreu or if it will force the Yankees into a bullpen game earlier than expected.
Furthermore , the source focuses primarily on the offensive strengths and pitching weaknesses but does not provide the current velocity data for Carlos Rodon compared to his pre-injury peak. Whether Rodon has recovered his top-end speed will likely determine if these home run predictions materialize.
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