The 2026 World Cup kicks off in just days with 48 nations split into 12 groups of four. Expert Iain MacMillan has parsed the betting odds, highlighting favorites like Mexico and Brazil while urging bettors to consider underdogs such as Paraguay and Ecuador.

Mexico’s home‑field edge makes them group‑stage favorite

MacMillan points to Mexico’s position as the top pick in their group, citing the advantage of playing on familiar soil and a relatively soft schedule.. He notes that Canada’s injury woes could further tilt the balance, leaving little room for a surprise challenger.

Paraguay at 4‑1: A defensive side worth a gamble

Among the dark horses, Paraguay stands out with odds of 4‑1, according to MacMillan. Their disciplined, defensive style, he argues, gives them the capacity to win or at least draw any group‑stage match, making them a value bet despite being overlooked by mainstream markets.

Ecuador’s five‑goal concession fuels a +340 long‑shot

MacMillan also recommends Ecuador, noting the team has allowed only five goals across 18 World Cup qualifiers. He believes the +340 payout reflects undervaluation, especially as the South American side could capitalize on tighter group dynamics.

Group F focus: Netherlands favorite, Japan as a tempting alternative

In Group F, the Netherlands carries the favorite label with a -130 line,yet MacMillan suggests Japan as an attractive secondary pick for those seeking better odds. the Dutch squad’s consistency makes them a safe bet, but Japan’s potential upside could reward risk‑takers.

Unanswered odds: How will Algeria’s 21‑2‑4 run translate to the World Cup?

MacMillan singles out Algeria as a surprie African contender, referencing a 21‑2‑4 record in their last 26 matches. What remains unclear is whether that form will hold against higher‑ranked opposition in the tournament, a question that bettors will watch closely.