Researchers have projected that the frequency of large, damaging hailstones could climb between 38% and 47% by the end of the century, driven by rising global temperatures. The study links stronger thunderstorm updrafts and higher atmospheric moisture to the uptick , warning that roofs, cars and even solar panels could face more frequent assaults.

Projected 38‑47% rise in large hail by 2100

The analysis , published this week , models three emissions pathways and finds that under the highest‑scenario trajectory, large hail events could increase by nearly half. According to the study, the surge hinges on how much greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere. The authors stress that the range reflects uncertainty in future emissions, but even the low‑end estimate signals a notable shift in hail risk.

U.S. Northern Plains and Argentina face sharp hail increase

Geographically, the research highlights the U.S. Northern Plains, parts of Canada, Argentina and several European regions as hotspots for the projected growth. In these areas, the model shows the steepest climb in hail larger than a marble. By contrast, some tropical zones may see a modest decline, as warmer air can melt smaller hail before it reaches the ground.

Why warmer air fuels bigger hailstones

Scientists explain that a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which fuels stronger updrafts inside thunderstorms. These vigorous currents keep hailstones aloft longer, allowing them to accrete additional ice layers and grow heavier. While smaller hail may evaporate more readily in a hotter climate , the larger stones survive and strike with greater kinetic energy. This physical mechanism underpins the study’s central claim about future hail intensity .

Uncertain damage pathways: population growth and building codes

Even with clear projections, the ultimate economic toll will depend on human factors. experts note that expanding populations, new construction in hail‑prone zones, and the resilience of building materials could amplify or mitigate losses. “Future losses will also hinge on where and how communities develop ,” one researcher said, underscoring the role of urban planning.

Will mitigation efforts curb hail damage?

The report leaves open whether adaptive measures—such as stricter roofing standards or targeted insurance schemes—can offset the projected rise. As the study points out, no consensus yet exists on the most effective policy response. Policymakers will need more localized risk assessments to decide where investments will yield the greatest protection.