Democratic candidates are currently leading in Texas's 15th, 28th, and 34th congressional districts, according to a Texas Southern University poll. This shift occurs in areas that President Donald Trump won during the 2024 election.
The 18-Point Swing in the 15th District
In Texas's 15th Congressional District, which is roughly 81 percent Hispanic, Democratic nominee Bobby Pulido currently leads Republican Representative Monica De La Cruz 50 percent to 45 percent. This represents a stark contrast to the 2024 results, where President Donald Trump won the district by 18 points and Monica De La Cruz secured her reelection by 14 points, according to the Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs poll.
The 15th District, stretching from Hidalgo County to Guadalupe County, has become a primary battleground for testing whether the Republican gains of 2024 were a permanent realignment or a temporary surge. Republican strategist Mike Madrid noted that this is the third survey in a single week to show Bobby Pulido leading by 5 to 7 points, suggesting a volatile shift in voter sentiment.
James Talarico's Lead Over Ken Paxton in the 28th and 34th
Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico is showing strong performance across multiple districts, leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in both the 28th and 34th Congressional Districts. In the 28th District, James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 51 percent to 41 percent, despite the fact that Senator Ted Cruz won that district by less than one point in 2024.
The trend continues in the 34th District, which is approximately 90 percent Hispanic. In this area, James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 53 percent to 42 percent. This is particularly notable because Senator Ted Cruz carried the 34th District by 2 points in the previous cycle, and President Donald Trump won it by 4 points, as reported in the source.
Why 60% of Latino Voters Prioritize Cost of Living
Economic anxiety is eclipsing cultural identity as the primary driver for Hispanic voters. A national UnidosUS poll of 3,000 registered Latino voters, conducted between April 27 and May 14, 2026, found that 60 percent of respondents identified the cost of living as the top priority for Congress. Other major concerns included the general economy and wages at 40 percent, health care at 37 percent, and housing at 27 percent.
This national trend is mirrored within the state. A separate UnidosUS poll of 400 Hispanic voters in Texas, conducted from October 8 to 22, 2025, revealed that 73 percent of respondents were deeply concerned about the economy. Mike Madrid argues that while many Hispanic voters remain socially conservative, these views only become the deciding factor when both political parties fail to address economic instability.
Mike Madrid's Warning on the Latino Swing Vote
Republican strategist Mike Madrid suggests that the political establishment is failing to recognize that the Latino vote is currently the largest swing vote in the United States... According to Madrid, the Democratic Party has previously become "unrelatable" to these voters by focusing on ethnic identity rather than class. He pionts to James Talarico's strategy of addressing Hispanic voters as a working class rather than an ethnic group as a successful model for reclaiming these districts.
This shift suggests that the 2024 movement toward the GOP was not a permanent cultural migration but a reflection of anger over the economy. Madrid asserts that if the Democratic Party can effectively speak to and solve economic concerns, they can easily win back voters who may still hold conservative views on gun rights and social issues.
The Split-Ticket Mystery of the 34th District
A critical unknown remains regarding the sustainability of this split-ticket behavior. While the 34th District is electing Democrats down-ballot,it continues to back President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket. It is unclear if this gap will close or if voters will continue to separate their presidential preference from their local congressional representation.
Furthermore, the current data relies heavily on polling from Texas Southern University and UnidosUS; it remains to be seen if other polling firms will verify these double-digit swings. Whether this trend extends to other border districts beyond the 15th, 28th , and 34th is a question that will determine the broader map of Texas politics.
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