Three Canadian ridings in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec will hold byelections this Monday to fill empty House of Commons seats. These votes act as a significant test for both the Liberal and Conservative parties.
The Chicoutimi-Le Fjord trade-war litmus test
The Saguenay region of Quebec is currently the most watched battleground due to its heavy reliance on aluminum, forestry, and dairy production. As the report notes, these industries have been caught in the crossfire of American trade tensions and Canada's supply management system. While the Conservative party has held this seat for four consecutive elections, the political landscape is shifting following the departure of Richard Martel, who left the Conservative caucus after being nominated for the Senate by Mark Carney.
This regional sentiment is supported by data from the Angus Reid Institute, which found that 85 per cent of Quebecers believe the government was correct to walk away from recent trade negotiations. McGill professor Daniel Beland suggests that the current trade-talk decisions have not harmed the federal government's standing in the province, partly because Donald Trump remains extremely unpopular in the region. If the Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil or a Bloc Quebecois representative manages to seize this seat, it could significantly undermine the political standing of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
Braeden Caley's return to a former Jonathan Wilkinson stronghold
In British Columbia, the Liberal Party is looking to retain a seat vacated by Jonathan Wilkinson, who resigned to take a diplomatic post in Europe. The Liberal candidate, Braeden Caley, brings significant political experience as a former top-level PMO staffer and deputy chief of staff to Mark Carney. However, the contest is not without friction, as Conservative candidate Stephen Curran has launched social media attack ads questioning Caley's local ties.
The political environment in British Columbia remains challenging for the NDP, which saw its support drop to just over four per cent in this riding during the last election. The candidates for this seat include:
- Braeden Caley (Liberal)
- Stephen Curran (Conservative)
- Stephen Tweedale (NDP)
- Tanveer Shahnawaz (Liberal)
- Shannon Devine (NDP)
- Jim Sybros (Conservative)
Tanveer Shahnawaz faces a post-Erskine-Smith landscape in Toronto
The Ontario riding vacated by Nate Erskine-Smith presents a different kind of challenge for the Liberal Party. Shahnawaz, who previously managed Erskine-Smith's constituency office, is attempting to hold a seat that the former minister won with a massive 67 per cent majority in 2025. Erskine-Smith stepped down after an unsuccessful bid for the provincial Liberal leadership, leaving his political future uncertain.
While the Liberals remain the dominant force in this Toronto-area riding, the NDP is attempting to reclaim ground. The primary contenders for the seat are:
Will Pierre Poilievre's leadership narrative survive a Quebec loss?
Several critical factors remain unverified as Monday's vote approaches, leaving the ultimate impact of these byelections in question. While the Liberals currently hold 171 seats and a majority, the psychological impact of these results on the Conservative Party could be immense. One major question is how the ongoing Quebec provincial election campaign will influence voter turnout in the Chicoutimi-Le Fjord riding. Furthermore, as Shachi Kurl of the Angus Reid Institute warned, late-summer byelections are notoriosly unpredictable due to typically low voter turnout, which could skew the perceived strength of the major parties.
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