Nearly 20,000 foreign nationals earmarked for deportation are currently living within British communities.. According to a study by the Migration Observatory, this figure represents a nearly 10% increase since the Labour government took office.
The 10% surge in offenders awaiting removal
The Migration Observatory, a branch of the University of Oxford, reported that the number of foreign national offenders (FNOs) living in the community rose from 18,070 in July 2024 to 19,780 during the first quarter of this year. This increase highlights a growing gap between prison releases and actual removals . As the report notes, the number of foreign offenders being successfully returned to their countries of origin was just 5,858 in the year leading up to March 2026.
This discrepancy suggests that the UK's deportation machinery is struggling to keep pace with the rate of release. While the number of foreign nationals in the prison population remains roughly in line with their share of the adult population, the backlog of those awaiting removal is reaching unprecedented levels.
The October release of 5,000 more offenders
The UK government's early release scheme, implemented in September 2024 to address prison overcrowding, appears to be contributing to the growing backlog. Experts cited in the report suggest that tens of thousands of offenders have been let out early, creating a bottleneck for the Home Office. A further tranche of 5,000 offenders is scheduled for early release this October, which could drive the numbers even higher.
Political tension is mounting as high-profile individuals are included in these release cycles. For instance, the upcoming releases include Albert Bowers and Jessie Cole, two of the individuals convicted of killing PC Andrew Harper. Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp has criticized the current administration, stating that "Labour's early release scheme has only added to this problem" and that the government is unable to effectively remove these criminals.
Albanian drug offenses and the 29% conviction rate
Crime statistics from the Migration Observatory reveal that Albanian nationals are significantly more likely to be involved in drug-related offenses than other foreign groups. The study found that Albanians were nealy four times more likely to commit drug offenses than any other foreign nationality. Specifically, Albanians accounted for 29% of all drug offenses committed by foreigners in 2024.
Other nationalities also feature in the data, though to a lesser extent. Polish nationals accounted for 8% of foreign drug convictions in the same period. Overall, while foreign nationals made up 13.5% of the general population, they accounted for 16% of all drug offenses in 2024 , according to the findings.
The unknown identities of the 20,000 earmarked offenders
The specific crimes and nationalities of many of the 20,000 individuals currently in the community remain unverified. The report notes that it is not known exactly what crimes the majority of these earmarked offenders committed , as they are typically released on immigration bail at the end of their sentences until deportation can be arranged.
A significant obstacle to the deportation process is the lack of cooperation from certain foreign governments. dr. Ben Brindle, a senior researcher at the Migration Observatory, stated that while removals have increased, they have not kept pace with releases because some countries do not fulfill their legal obligation to accept their own citizens.. This lack of international cooperation remains a primary hurdle for Prime Minister Andy Burnham's administration.
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