Canadian voters in three distinct ridings will cast ballots this Monday to fill vacancies in the House of Commons. These contests span from safe Liberal strnogholds in British Columbia and Ontario to a high-stakes battleground in Quebec's Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.
The Liberal hold on Braeden Caley and Tanveer Shahnawaz
Braeden Caley, a former staffer for Mark Carney, is attempting to secure a Liberal victory in British Columbia. He is running to replace Jonathan Wilkinson, who transitioned to a diplomatic role in Europe after resigning his seat in June.. Caley faces a challenge from Conservative candidate Stephen Curran, a commercial lawyer who previously finished second to Wilkinson in the 2025 election.
In Ontario, Tanveer Shahnawaz is the Liberal candidate for a seat previously held by Nate Erskine-Smith. As the report notes, Shahnawaz formerly served as Erskine-Smith's constituency office maanager. The Liberal candidate faces Jim Sybros of the Conservatives and NDP's Shannon Devine in a riding where Erskine-Smith once commanded more than 67 per cent of the vote.
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord’s struggle against U.S. trade tariffs
The riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord in Quebec represents the most competitive contst on Monday's ballot. Liberal candidate Daniel Gobeil, a local dairy farmer, faces a challenging political environment shaped by American trade policy. The Saguenay region remains sensitive to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on aluminum and forestry products.
Despite these economic pressures , recent polling suggests the federal government maintains local support . According to the report, an Angus Reid Institute poll indicates that 85 per cent of Quebecers approve of Mark Carney’s decision to exit recent trade negotiations. this sentiment may provide a buffer for the Liberal candidate in a region hit hard by American trade disputes.
Richard Martel’s Senate move and the risk to Pierre Poilievre
Conservative MP Richard Martel’s departure from Pierre Poilievre’s caucus has shifted the political dynamics in Quebec. Martel, a former four-term MP, was nominated for a Senate seat by Mark Carney, making him the fifth Conservative MP to exit the caucus this spring. His absence leaves a vacuum that the Conservatives are struggling to fill.
Pierre Poilievre faces a potential leadership crisis if the Conservatives fail to perform in Chicoutimi-Le Fjord.. Political science professor Daniel Bélland noted that a distant third-place finish for the Conservatives could reinforce negative narratives regarding Poilievre's leadership. Furthermore, Kurl's data indicates that Conservative voters remain evenly divided on whether the government's recent trade decisions were correct.
The uncertainty of Nate Erskine-Smith’s future and voter turnout
Voter participation remains a significant concern for the upcoming Monday elections. Kurl’s data suggests that byelections held during the late summer often experience lower turnout than general elections, a trend that could impact the final results. The ongoing provincial election campaign in Quebec may further complicate voter engagement and turnout levels.
Several political trajectories remain unresolved following these upcoming votes. The political future of Nate Erskine-Smith remains an open question after his recent provincial nomination loss, and the outcome of these three races will leave three more vacancies in the House of Commons . As of late August, the Liberals hold 171 seats, while the Conservatives hold 139, the Bloc Québécois holds 21, and the NDP holds five.
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