A recent More in Common survey indicates the Conservative Party has moved back into second place with 23% support. This shift pushes Reform UK to its lowest standing in a year and a half, while Labour remains the lead party at 26%.
The 23 per cent climb for Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives
The political landscape in Britain is seeing a notable realignment, according to the More in Common poll. The Conservative Party, now led by Kemi Badenoch, has risen to 23% of the electorate, narrowly overtaking Reform UK, which fell to 22%.. While the Labour Party maintains its lead at 26%, the report says this figure represents a one-point drop, suggesting that the initial surge of enthusiasm surrounding Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham—the so-called "Burnham bounce"—may be losing its initial momentum.
This movement reflects a broader struggle for the soul of the British right . For nearly two years, Nigel Farage's Reform UK has acted as a primary disruptor, siphoning off traditional Tory voters.. However, the current data suggests a potential consolidation around Kemi Badenoch as she attempts to stabilize the party's identity and reclaim its position as the sole alternative to the Labour government.
Nigel Farage's 22 per cent dip and the £5 million question
For Reform UK, the slide to third place comes at a precarious moment. Despite Nigel Farage's recent return to Parliament via a by-election victory, the party's support has hit its weakest level in eighteen months. A senior Conservative source cited in the report suggests that Reform UK is "going backwards," pointing to a lack of transparency regarding a controversial five million pound personal donation received by Nigel Farage.
The internal friction on the right is further complicated by the emergence of Restore Britain, a hardline rival outfit founded by Rupert Lowe MP. While Restore Britain currently sits at 4%, More in Common noted that this figure may be artificially low because respondents were only prompted about the party for two weeks. The fragmentation of the populist vote between Nigel Farage and Rupert Lowe could provide the opening Kemi Badenoch needs to fully recover the Conservative base.
Andrew Griffith and Tom Tugendhat enter the Shadow Cabinet
Simultaneous with the polling shift, Kemi Badenoch has executed a sweeping reshuffle of the Conservative Shadow Cabinet to signal a new direction. The report says that Andrew Griffith has replaced Sir Mel Stride as Shadow Chancellor, while Tom Tugendhat has been appointed as Shadow Foreign Secretary, taking over from Dame Priti Patel. Additionally, Katie Lam has been promoted to the housing and local government portfolio.
These appointments are viewed by some Conservative MPs as a strategic effort to build a "government-in-waiting." By elevating figures like Tom Tugendhat and Katie Lam, Kemi Badenoch is attempting to project a professionalized, ready-to-govern image that contrasts with the more insurgent, protest-style politics of Reform UK . This structural pivot is designed to convince voters that the Conservatives are the only viable party capable of holding the Labour government to account.
Comparing Andy Burnham's plus 13 rating to Badenoch's plus 1
Personal popularity remains a volatile metric in this race. Andy Burnham continues to lead the pack with a net approval rating of plus 13 points. Kemi Badenoch has seen her own standing improve, returning to a net positive approval rating of plus 1, though she remains significantly behind the Manchester mayor in terms of broad public appeal.
The contrast is even sharper when looking at other party leaders. Sir Ed Davey of the Liberal Democrats sits at minus 5, while Rupert Lowe of Restore Britain is at minus 12. Nigel Farage, despite his high profile, recorded a stark minus 27 rating, placing him only slightly ahead of Green Party leader Zack Polanski.. This suggests that while Reform UK has a dedicated base, Nigel Farage himself may be becoming a polarizing figure who struggles to attract the wider electorate.
Luke Tryl's warning on margins and the 4 per cent for Restore Britain
Despite the dramatic headlines, Luke Tryl, the UK director of More in Common, has cautioned that these shifts fall within the margin of error.. He warned that further fluctuations are likely as the party conference season begins, meaning the current rankings should be viewed as a snapshot rather than a permanent trend.
Several critical points remain unverified or unanswered.. It is still unclear where the five million pound donation to Nigel Farage originated, and the report does not provide a response from Nigel Farage or Reform UK regarding the claims that the party is in decline. Furthermore, it remains to be seen if the reshuffle of the Shadow Cabinet will translate into a sustained increase in polling or if the Conservative recovery is merely a temporary reaction to Reform UK's internal instability.
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