On April 9, 2026, thousands of Iranians gathered in Tehran for a commemorative rally, holding portraits of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei, who served as Iran's supreme leader for nearly four decades, was remembered following his death in US-Israeli strikes that initiated the ongoing Middle East war.

The conflict, now in its sixth week, has unfolded against a complex and shifting geopolitical backdrop. Initially, President Trump expressed surprise at Iran's retaliatory actions against its neighbors and its assertion of control over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's Resilience Amidst Prolonged Conflict

Trump's early predictions of a swift regime collapse in Iran have not materialized. This unexpected resilience has prompted a critical reevaluation: could Iran, despite enduring substantial damage from US actions, be gaining an advantage from this extended confrontation?

The US-Israeli attacks, which targeted key Iranian leaders at the war's outset, significantly influenced the direction of Iran's subsequent responses and strategies.

A Hardline Shift in Leadership and Tactics

Vali Nasr's Expert Analysis

Vali Nasr, a distinguished scholar of Iranian politics at Johns Hopkins University, shared his insights with Steve Inskeep. Nasr analyzed whether the prolonged conflict has inadvertently strengthened the Iranian regime, noting a significant shift in its leadership.

According to Nasr, Iran's new leadership is considerably more hardline. This applies both to its internal governance and its approach to warfare against the United States and its adversaries, adopting a notably unrestrained posture.

He highlighted that this new leadership has shown unwavering resolve, refusing to yield to significant threats. They have also reportedly crossed boundaries previously respected by the former supreme leader, including targeting civilian infrastructure and sites in neighboring countries. Nasr stated that Iran is now engaging in warfare in ways that were previously unprecedented.

Strategic Victories and Enhanced Regional Leverage

Within Iran, several developments are perceived as significant victories. These include President Trump's apparent acceptance of Iran's capacity to close the Strait of Hormuz and the adoption of Iran's 10-point proposal as the foundation for ongoing negotiations.

Nasr underscored Iran's remarkable resilience, demonstrating its ability to withstand U.S. and Israeli military pressure for over five weeks. Furthermore, its surprising escalation of the war throughout the Gulf has successfully generated considerable leverage in the region.

During his interview, Nasr also offered his perspective on Trump's interest in participating in upcoming high-level talks between the U.S. and Iran, and the notable shifts he has observed on both sides since the war's commencement.