Hamas has agreed to a UN-backed framework to disarm its military wings and transfer control to a transitional administration in Gaza. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected the proposed timeline, insisting that all weapons be removed before any Israeli military withdrawal occurs.
The 15-point roadmap and the NCAG mandate
The proposed transition relies on a 15-point roadmap designed to move Gaza from active conflict to a stable civilian administration. As outlined by Nikolay Mladenov, the high representative of the Gaza Peace Board, the plan requires the total removal of all weaponry from the territory, including heavy artillery and the extensive tunnel networks used for arms storage. Under this framework, control over all security and civilian assets would be handed to a newly formed National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG).
This committee is intended to be composed of independent Palestinian professionals who would manage the territory's daily operations during the transitional phase. According to the report, the ultimate goal of the NCAG is to move beyond mere security stabilization to provide tangible improvements in living conditions,such as reliable public services and enhanced local security. mladenov emphasized that the crisis in Gaza is not merely a security or humanitarian problem but a deep-seated governance issue that requires this structured transition. The plan envisions a reciprocal process where Israeli withdrawal happens in stages, contingent upon the verified decommissioning of Hamas's military capabilities.
Netanyahu's August 17th ultimatum on sequencing
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has fundamentally challenged the logic of the UN-backed proposal by disputing the order of operations. While the roadmap suggests a sequenced, reciprocal withdrawal of Israeli forces, Netanyahu insists that Hamas must be completely disarmed before any movement of Israeli troops is considered. This hardline position was reinforced during high-level diplomatic engagements, including a meeting with Mladenov on August 17th and discussions with US envoy Jared Kushner.
The refusal to accept the proposed sequencing creates a significant diplomatic impasse. The report notes that any continued use of force that does not respond to an imminent threat, or the continued existence of weapons and tunnels, could derail the entire 15-point process. This standoff highlights the core tension between the UN's vision of a phased transition and Israel's demand for absolute security guarantees as a prerequisite for any withdrawal.
The Smotrich factor and the October election
Domestic political pressures within Israel are complicating the government's ability to negotiate a settlement. Far-right coalition partners, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have voiced strong opposition to the roadmap, demanding complete dissarmament prior to any Israeli exit from Gaza. This internal friction is exacerbated by the looming official election scheduled for late October.
The political survival of the current administration appears tied to its ability to maintain a hardline stance against concessions. As the election approaches, the influence of ministers like Smotrich may limit Netanyahu's room for diplomatic maneuver, even as international pressure for a governance solution in Gaza increases. This dynamic suggests that the conflict is being shaped as much by the Israeli electoral calendar as by the humanitarian crisis on the ground.
Uncertainties regarding the Sharm al Sheikh Protocol
Despite the details of the roadmap, several critical components of the agreement remain unverified or lack specific public detail. The plan's progress is explicitly tied to the fulfillment of Israel's commitments under the Sharm al Sheikh Protocol, yet the specific terms of this protocol and how they will be monitored remain unclear in the current briefing. Furthermore, the deployment of an International Stabilisation Force is a mandatory condition for progress, but the composition and mandate of such a force have not been fully established.
There is also the question of how the transition will be verified. While Mladenov emphasized the need for "verified decommissioning" of arms,the mechanisms for such verification—and who will lead the inspection of Gaza's extensive tunnel networks—remain significant unanswered questions. Without clear answers on these technical and legal pillars, the roadmap remains a theooretical framework rather than an actionable peace plan.
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