Federal meteorologists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expect most of the United States to experience warmer-than-normal temperatures from September through November. This seasonal shift is being driven by a strengthening El Niño pattern in the tropical Pacific.
The absence of below-normal temperature predictions for the Lower 48
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center has released a seasonal outlook that shows a significant tilt toward warmth across the contiguous United States. Notably, the agency's temperature map does not identify any region in the Lower 48 where below-normal temperatures are expected this fall. Instead, the forecast favors above-average heat across much of the West, the Great Plains, the Gulf Coast, and the Northeast.
The strongest signals for this warming trend are concentrated in the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies, where the probability of above-average temperatures is at its peak. Even Alaska is expected to trend warmer than its usual averages, particularly in the southern portions of the state. This widespread warmth reflects a broader pattern of increasing global temperatures often amplified by specific climate drivers.
A 69 percent chance of historic El Niño strength
A strengthening El Niño in the tropical Pacific is the primary catalyst for these projected weather shifts. According to the report, there is a greater than 90 percent chance that this climate pattern will evolve into a very strong event during the fall and winter months. Furthermore, forecasters suggest there is a 69 percent chance that the event will reach historic strength between October and December, potentially rivaling the intensity of major events recorded since 1950.
Historically, these powerful El Niño episodes have coincided with extreme weather disruptions globally. The 1997-98 "Super El Niño" caused destructive flooding in California and Peru, while the 2015-16 event was linked to record-breaking global temperatures. As the current event intensifies, scientists are watching to see if it will follow these precedents by amplifying heat extremes or altering storm tracks via shifts in the jet stream.
Wet Southwest and Southeast vs . a dry Pacific Northwest
Precipitation patterns for the upcoming season appear much more fragmented than the temperature outlook. The Climate Prediction Center indicates that the highest odds for wetter-than-normal conditions are centered in the Southwest, specifically affecting Arizona, New Mexico, and the Four Corners region. Additionally, parts of the Southeast, including Georgia and the Carolinas, are expected to see above-average rainfall.
In contrast, other regions may face the opposite extreme. The Pacific Northwest and parts of the Great Lakes region are currently favored to experience drier-than-normal conditions. Large portions of the central United States fall into an "equal chances" category, meaning forecasters see no strong tilt toward either wet or dry conditions in the Mississippi or Ohio Valleys.
The missing specifics on exact rainfall and temperature readings
While the seasonal trends are clearly defined, several critical pieces of data remain unverified . The NOAA outlook maps do not predict exact rainfall totals or specific temperature readings, providing only a probabilistic view of what is likely. Additionally , the report does not specify how this particular El Niño will influence Atlantic hurricane activity, though historically, such events can suppress storm formation by increasing wind shear.
The exact timing of the transition into a "very strong" event also remains a point of uncertainty. While the progression is expected to be gradual, the precise impact on regional jet streams is difficult to pin down this far in advance. Consequently, the full scale of the potential weather disruptions remains an open question for meteorologists and emergency planners alike.
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