The Council on Criminal Justice reports that homicide rates in major U.S. cities fell by 18% during the first half of 2026. If this trajectory continues, the United States could see its lowest annual murder rate in over a century.
The 18% drop that could signal a century-low homicide rate
According to the Council on Criminal Justice, the decline in lethal violence is stark, with an 18% reduction in homicides across 30 major U.S. cities during the first half of 2026 compared to the same window last year. This represents approximately 215 fewer killings in those metropolitan areas alone.. Researchers suggst that if these figures hold through the end of the caleendar year, the nation will have recorded its lowest annual homicide rate in more than 100 years.
This statistical plunge occurs during a period of intense national polarization regarding public safety. While the numbers indicate a significant cooling of lethal violence, the perception of crime often diverges from the data,creating a gap between the lived experience of many residents and the political rhetoric used to describe American cities.
National Guard deployments in Memphis vs. the CCJ data
The findings from the Council on Criminal Justice arrive as former President Donald Trump continues to advocate for aggressive federal intervention in urban centers. over the last year,Donald Trump has authorized the deployment of National Guard troops to cities such as Memphis, arguing that such moves are essential to restore order in areas he claims are plagued by violent crime.
However, the data suggests that these specific federal interventions may not be the primary driver of the decline.. Adam Gelb, the president and CEO of the Council on Criminal Justice, noted that murder and other crimes are falling in cities regardless of their political leadership, policing strategies, or local economic conditions. this indicates that broader, national trends—rather than a single policy or the presence of the National Guard—are likely fueling the improvements.
Residential burglaries falling 50% below 2019 levels
The decline in violence is part of a wider trend across multiple crime categories. The Council on Criminal Justice tracked 13 different categories of crime and found that nine of them saw declines, including carjacking and aggravated assault. Most notably, residential burglaries fell 13% from a year earlier and have plummeted roughly 50% compared to 2019 levels,prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Beyond the volume of crime, the nature of violent encounters is changing. The report highlights that violent crimes are becoming less deadly, with the share of serious violent offenses that result in death falling by 23%. This suggests a shift in either the methods of conflict or the efficacy of emergency medical responses in major cities.
Why Norfolk and San Francisco bucked the national trend
Despite the national downward trend, the decline has not been universal. About one-third of the cities studied by the Council on Criminal Justice actually recorded increases in homicides, with Norfolk, Virginia, and San Francisco appearing as notable exceptions to the general rule. The report leaves open the question of why these specific urban environments are resisting the national trend of declining violence.
Furthermore, while most cities have seen rates drop below pre-pandemic levels, a small group of outliers remains. Only Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis reported more homicides in the first half of this year than they did during the same period in 2019. The lack of detailed city-specific data in the report means it remains unclear whether these spikes are due to localized gang conflicts, policy failures, or other specific regional stressors.
The persistence of shoplifting and domestic violence increases
While lethal violence is receding, other forms of crime are proving more stubborn. The Council on Criminal Justice recorded modest increases in shoplifting, sexual assault, and domestic violence during the first half of the year. These increases suggest that while the most extreme forms of violence are plummeting, "quality of life" crimes and interpersonal violence remain persistent challenges for local law enforcement.
Drug offenses also saw a modest increase compared to the first half of last year, though the report notes that these figures still remain below the levels seen before the pandemic.. This suggests a complex recovery period where some crime types are permanently altered by the pandemic's social disruptions while others are returning to a baseline.
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