Middle Eastern crude oil exports have climbed above pre-war averages despite a spike in maritime violence near the Strait of Hormuz. Recent ship-tracking data indicates that shipping volumes reached as high as 22.5 million barrels per day even as security threats to tankers intensified.
The 22.4 million barrel daily surge
Middle Eastern energy suppliers are demonstrating unexpected resilience in the face of regional instability. According to Kpler ship-tracking data, crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million barrels per day during the final week of September. This volume represents a notable increase from the 18 million barrels per day average recorded in the period prior to the recent escalation of hostilities.
This upward trend is not limited to crude oil. liquefied natural gas (LNG) movements though the Strait of Hormuz have also climbed to their highest monthly levels since February. This suggests that despite the volatility,the global energy supply chain is currently absorbing the risks associated with the Middle Eastern maritime corridors.
The Kazimah III fire and the "kill box" theory
Security threats in the region have escalated significantly, with the shipping intelligence firm Marisks reporting at least seven incidents involving attacks on tankers. A particularly severe incident occurred on October 1, when the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile and set ablaze while transiting the strait. The tanker had recently discharged 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at the Ras Markaz port in Oman before the attack.
Analysts suggest these attacks may not be targeted strikes against specific companies, but rather a broader tactical shift. As Marisks reported, there is evidence that Iranian forces may be conducting missile tests within a predefined "kill box." This strategy involves deploying weapons that lock onto any radar signature within a specific engagement zone, making any vessel in the area a potential target regardless of its identity.
The mystery of the Kazimah III projectile
Several critical details regarding the recent surge in violence remain unverified. While the UK's Maritime Trade Operations has documented daily strikes in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2, the exact origin of the projectile that hit the Kazimah III remains unknown.. Furthermore, the Kuwait Oil Tanker Company has not responded to inquiries regarding the status of the vessel or its crew.
There is also the issue of data visibility. Current export figures may not fully reflect the reality on the water, as the report notes that these totals exclude vessels that have deactivated their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders to avoid detection. This leaves an open question as to whether the reported resilience is a result of increased volume or simply a lack of visibility into vessels attempting to evade the "kill box."
Securing the Strait's 20% global energy share
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most vital maritime atreries in the world, typically handling approximately 125 large commercial vessels every day. Because the strait accounts for roughly 20% of the world's daily oil and gas output, the current security environment places immense pressure on international trade. Shipping companies are now forced to navigate a narrow corridor between commercial necessity and the extreme physical risks posed by indiscriminate missile fire.
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